On April 16, the Sichuan Survey Team of the National Bureau of Statistics released survey findings from the first quarter of 2025 regarding Sichuan's main livelihood indicators: the province's consumer price index (CPI) remained stable compared to the same period in the previous year; the per capita living expenditure by residents in Sichuan stood at 6,351 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.2 percent in both nominal and real terms.

What was the trend in prices across the province during the first quarter? And what were the key characteristics of residents' consumption patterns?

Significant Fluctuations Observed in Some Commodity Prices

The data shows that in the first quarter, the CPI in Sichuan remained flat compared to the same period last year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.2 percent year on year. "Since the start of this year, the provincial economy has demonstrated stability and positive trends, with a growing number of factors conducive to price stabilization and recovery. This has been reflected in the CPI through several encouraging changes and operational highlights," noted Xia Longsheng, the Chief Statistician of the Sichuan Survey Team of the National Bureau of Statistics.

The monthly trend reveals that the CPI exhibits notable short-term year-on-year fluctuations due to the calendar shift of the Spring Festival (occurring in February 2024 but in January 2025). Despite these variations, the overall trend remains positive. More specifically, the CPI registered a year-on-year increase of 0.7 percent in January, a decrease of 0.7 percent in February, and in March, as the impact of the Spring Festival calendar shift diminished, the year-on-year decline converged, showing a reduction of 0.2 percent.

According to expert analysis, the substantial price volatility in certain commodities has a pronounced effect on the CPI. Of particular note, pork prices rose by 10.3 percent compared to the same period last year, accounting for approximately a 0.17-percentage-point increase in the CPI. In January, driven by the demand for Spring Festival preparations, pork prices in Sichuan increased slightly by 1.7 percent month on month. After the festival, as the traditional off-peak consumption season sets in, the price of pork consecutively decreases for two months when compared month on month. Due to the low base figure from the previous year, the pork price maintained a year-on-year increase, driving the cumulative rise over the first quarter.

The provincial producer price index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 2.7 percent year on year in the first quarter, with the year-on-year decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points from the fourth quarter of last year. Jiang Chaoyang, Director of the Production Price Survey Division at the Sichuan Survey Team of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzes that the primary factor behind the narrowing decline is the positive stabilization and recovery trend observed in the province's industrial economy. Among the key factors, the swift advancement of high-tech industries, the efficacy of policies promoting consumption and equipment renewal, and the improved supply-demand structure in certain sectors have collectively contributed to positive shifts in prices.

Rural Consumption Growth Outpaces Urban Rates

In the first quarter, the per capita living consumption expenditure of residents in the province stood at 6,351 yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.2 percent. This growth rate has accelerated by 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year. "The province has intensified its efforts to expand the implementation of the consumer goods trade-in policy and sustain the momentum of a thriving holiday economy. These drivers are accelerating household consumption recovery, as evidenced by growth across all eight major consumption categories," said Shi Wenge, Director of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey Division at the Sichuan Survey Team of the National Bureau of Statistics.

Development-oriented consumption remains vibrant. Since the beginning of this year, continuous efforts have been directed towards the effective implementation of the consumer goods trade-in policy. Local governments have actively created new consumption scenarios, and residents' spending on transportation, cultural entertainment, tourism, and accommodation has been relatively active. In the first quarter, the per capita expenditure on transportation and communication by Sichuan's residents was 878 yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.1 percent. The per capita expenditure on education, culture, and entertainment was 479 yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.1 percent.

Service-related consumption has seen rapid growth. In the first quarter, the per capita service consumption expenditure by the province's residents was 2,576 yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.8 percent. This increase is 0.6 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, indicating a further enhancement in the quality of residents' consumption levels.

It is noteworthy that rural consumption growth outpaced urban rates. The accelerated implementation of the rural revitalization strategy and the ongoing improvement of the county-level commercial system have further unlocked the consumption potential of rural residents. During the first quarter, rural residents in the province recorded a per capita consumption expenditure of 4,724 yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.5 percent. This growth outpaced urban rates by 1.0 percentage point, while marking a 0.4-percentage-point acceleration from last year's levels.

"Current consumer market recovery lacks solid footing, as seen in households' cautious spending expectations and their consumption capacity needing enhancement," said Shi Wenge. In the next phase, it is crucial to sustain relevant policy efforts to boost consumer confidence and purchasing power, thus promoting a steady upward trend in consumer spending, Shi added.