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伯特·格莱夫斯坦:自然与人类危机:政府的作用
 2010年09月22日
来源:省政府办公厅
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Natural Disasters and Human Risk: The Role of Government

  Robert Grafstein (Department of Political Science, University of Georgia)

  Abstract: This paper addresses problems that arise precisely because government is expected to respond and help the victims of natural disasters. These problems arise in two dimensions. One, government is organized hierarchically and its response is organized this way as well. In general, the higher up the level of this hierarchy, the more resources and capacity government has. In general, however, the higher up the level of hierarchy, the less information government has about many of the factors affecting the impact of the disaster and the ability of the affected communities to address it. These factors include local customs, local organization, individual abilities, the pattern of local leadership and authority, local building techniques, and individual resources. Two, government responds after the disaster strikes. The problem is that over time people in disaster-prone areas respond to the government’s response. They behave in light of their expectations about the amount and type of help government will provide should disaster strike again. This means that government measures that are highly successful and generous in mitigating loss from disasters may change people’s incentives for the worse. Moral hazard problems arise when the insurance government provides amplifies the risks individuals are willing to take. In other words, the disaster does not only affect the government’s response; the government’s response affects the impact of the next disaster. The paper concludes with recommendations for government policy and its relation to private insurance markets.

  
自然与人类危机:政府的作用

  罗伯特·格莱夫斯坦(乔治亚大学政治学院)

  摘要:本论文重点论述了政府在救助自然灾害灾民时面临的种种问题。问题主要归于两类。一、政府是分级构建的,其做出的灾害应对也是逐层进行的。总的来说,机构越出于上层,其拥有的资源与能力就越多越大。但另一方面,它所获取的影响灾害后果的种种因素方面的信息却越来越少。这些因素包括地方风俗,地区组织结构,个人能力,地方政府组织形态,地区建筑技术及个人资源。二、灾害发生后,政府迅速响应。问题在于灾害频发地区的人们是根据政府的灾害应对来做出相应反应的。他们的行为是建立在对政府在下次灾害发生时可能做出的反应和提供的帮助的预期估计上。这意味着成功的政府应对措施会极大地提高群众的积极性。当政府提供的保险保障超出了个人所能承受的范围,道德危机问题便出现了。换而言之,灾害不仅影响政府的决策,政府的应对也会对下次灾害的结果产生影响。论文最后论述了对政府决策及政府与私人保险业关系的建议。

 
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